The up side of playing this evening in the League Cup is that we find ourselves – well, I do anyway – quickly deviating away from the disappointment of TDD with a match in which suddenly there’s a wee bit of optimism amongst the fanbase.

It’s odd because when the first leg of this tie was played I was in South Africa, I watched the game in my villa in Cape Town, throwing out expletives and then insisting that we completely throw the second leg because it was ‘done’.

Ahh the benefits of time, hope and form, eh? Because since that result and the disappointing FA Cup exit to United (but unlucky given how crap they were in offering so little), it felt like the season was imploding, but we’ve been on a bit of a tear up since then beating the Scum, Zagreb, Wolves, Girona and then City at the weekend. The only blot on the copy book was that Villa draw but they took two of their few chances and we had injuries again which conspired to shuffle players around that had an ultimate impact on the result (Partey at right back, anyone?).

We’ve hit a bit of form in our performances and although we all wanted a striker – and we all know we are worryingly thin up top right now when you get beyond the immediate options (Arteta once again referenced this yesterday in his press conference and I get the feeling he’s just as frustrated as we are) – we have still scored 16 goals in six games, so our forward line is at least beginning to click a bit. We’ve also found players like MLS and Nwaneri who are not just getting ‘grower’ minutes, but are actively contributing, so perhaps there’s a little more cause for optimism?

I suspect it might not be enough for tonight though. I just had a quick look at the Opta Analyst and it says that only once in 32 occasions where a team has lost their semi final leg by two or more goals, when it has been overturned. That was Villa beating Tranmere Rovers in 94 and that was a Premier League side playing a side further down the football pyramid in another division. We play a Newcastle side who have admittedly had a wobble of late, but they are still a good Premier League outfit, a professional Premier League outfit, a side who have been good at frustrating us on plenty of times already under Eddie Howe’s reign.

And they’ll do just that tonight. They don’t need the ball. They just need their shape. They can approach this game like the first leg: cede possession at times, make the most of the moments that the ball turns over and then hit us on the break when we have not set in our defensive position. In the home game I felt we froze a bit in moments and to be fair to Newcastle, in that first half I thought they were pretty good. They certainly got their tactics spot on and we were very frustrating to watch on the night. That’s because we did enough to win. Martinelli’s ball off the post, Havertz’s completely  unmarked 50p header in the six yard box – we did enough to win that game and it was the worst iteration of profligate Arsenal. 3.09xG, 23 attempts at goal, 70% possession, but we fell to a team who have a forward in rip-roaring form and then a sucker-punch from Gordon. Again, you have to do the most important thing, which is score goals as those are the numbers that really matter and on the night, we just didn’t.

Tonight I think we will be up for it, of that there is no doubt and after that City win, I think the players will be feeling pretty good. We tore apart City at the weekend, whereas Newcastle were outplayed from a stats perspective (although they hit the post and the bar and Willock probably should have scored from one chance) to Fulham and lost 2-1 at home. Newcastle went ahead and it was a goal in transition after a turnover that Gordon and Murphy combined. The second half looks like it was Fulham searching for that goal but because it was Fulham and because Newcastle would have been expecting to go and get the second, I suspect it left a lot more space than we’ll be afforded tonight. I just watched Fulham’s equaliser – there were eight Newcastle players in the box. Tonight there will be 10 if that similar situation unfolds.

For us I think we just need to make sure we don’t fall apart when the ball transitions. That’s what Newcastle want; soak up the play, let us come forward desperate to get back in to the game, then hit us with quick back to front movement. We need to be ready.

For Arteta I think his pitch to his players is that we have this game and then there can be some resting of bodies thereafter when we go and do some warm weather training. So I think he’ll go with his strongest XI for the game, which to my mind right now is:

Raya

Timber   –   Saliba   –   Gabriel   –   MLS

Partey

Odegaard   –   Rice

Martinelli   –   Havertz   –   Trossard

There might be a question as to whether he wants to give Nwaneri a start, but I think he kicks off with this team and tries to give Ethan some second half minutes. If he does give the youngster a go then fair enough, but I just have a feeling that he’ll keep him on ice until he’s ready to let him loose in the latter stages of the match.

For us we need to be better than the last two times we’ve been there. I don’t think it was a Howe ‘tactico masterclass’ on both occasions, I just think on both times theyt’ve caught us playing really poor. So I want us to address that today. That means better, crisper passing, less slow build up and more intensity. Newcastle are going to come to this game today with runners and pace. They are going to chase down everything so we need to be able to move the ball around their heavy press quickly and with purpose – not so much triangles that just go round and around – more triangles of passing that evade a press and get us moving up the pitch a little more quickly.

I’m not expecting us to progress tonight and because of that, I am hoping it takes the pressure off us a little bit, but I do want to see us build on the good form of the last few games and if we are to exit at this stage let’s make sure we go down swinging.

Catch you all tomorrow.