Is it me, or does it feel like we’ve played tough game after tough game this season? I get it – “you have to play everyone twice” as well as “everyone plays each other twice”, but still, it’s really felt like this is week after week in which we’ve had some super tough fixtures. And today is no exception as we play our second away game in week and our third in our last four to a Brighton side who are the epitome of mid table inconsistency and a proper metaphor of the old Forest Gump ‘box of chocolates’ famous quote.

In their last six games they’ve:

  • Drawn away to Aston Villa
  • Drawn at home to Brentford
  • Drawn away to West Ham
  • Lost at home to Palace
  • Drawn away to Leicester
  • Lost away to Fulham

They sit exactly in the middle of the table and those string of draws mean that the good start they had to the season has been eroded away. But that doesn’t mean they’ll play us with their heads down I don’t think; this is their first one of 2025 and you can bet yer ass that Hürzeler will be tapping in to a ‘renewal’ narrative as he gees his team up for 2025; they’ll be bang up for it and we need to be ready.

From a form perspective we go in to this in a good place. We’ve won four in a row in all competitions and – anti football Ipswich game aside on 27th December – we’ve been in decent scoring form after the disappointment of losing Saka and the melancholy of the fan base as to how we are going to keep the goals a-coming. We’re going to need to do it again today.

Brighton will be without Welbeck and Ferguson, which is a plus for us, but they will have Pedro, who scored their goal against us and is a decent player who can punish you. They are a side who haven’t got the best home form in the league so far this season, but that Palace defeat I mentioned above is their only one at home – this is a side who create chances and who don’t lose often on their own patch.

And we’re going to have to do it with Partey at right back, which is a bit of a double pain in the arse because a) he was superb in the middle of the park at Brentford, and b) him filling in at right back makes him a target for whoever Brighton play on their left wing. In years past we’ve seen Mitoma give Ben White a pasting, but his form hasn’t seen him starting regularly this season until recently I don’t think. At Villa it was Adingra who played on their left wing left, at home against Brentford he started and was bright, but didn’t score, he started against West Ham and was apparently quite decent, so gut feel suggests that’ll be the match up again. Partey is going to have a tough time if so and so I think we’ll need to provide him additional cover if we can.

Brighton want to hit us with quick transitions, they want to hit us hard and are one of the pressiest teams in the league. They will want to use that to catch us out and so for me an upside of the Partey move to right back is that hopefully we have a fully recovered Rice who will cover the ground across the back four. We will need that support if we’re going to get anything from this game. Brighton press high and hold a high line, so what we do need today is to make use of fast-paced and tricky wide men who can get in behind. That means for me it will 100% be Martinelli on the left and not Trossard, but who plays wide right? The temptation for Arteta might be to put in Trossard to see if he can have an extra-motivated performance against his old team, but I think we’ll need more pace in that front line, so I’d have either Gabriel Jesus or Nwaneri in again. Both deserve to start given their respective performances against The Bees, but with Havertz hopefully back in the squad (Arteta confirmed yesterday he was available after illness), as well as hopefully Rice better and ready to start, I’d guess that Arteta will be rotating back in today. For Rice it is easy because Partey shifts to right back, but does Havertz slot into midfield and Merino drop out? Or do one of Nwaneri and Jesus step out of the starting XI?

I have a feeling Arteta will want to protect Nwaneri today and so I am thinking that he might drop out and Jesus goes wide right. It’s not what I would do, I hope I’m wrong, but I’m just trying to second-guess what Arteta’s thinking might be for this really tough game.

Liverpool will absolutely batter a terrible United team tomorrow, so we need to get a win by any means tonight, because nine points and a game in hand for the Scousers is just too much at this stage.

I have a nervous feeling about this one. We need to dominate the ball, we need to create chances, we need to take them. Defensively we have the best record in terms of how many chances we allow and Brighton have been giving teams opportunities when you looks at their xG allowed stats. So we will get chances and we need to pounce on them when we get them. Show the same efficiency in front of goal as you did against Palace and Brentford, Arsenal.

And lean in to the injustice of the home game. We were robbed of what would have been three points given we were one up when the most ridiculous decisions of 2024 was given with that Rice red card. We know Arteta likes to use that stuff as a ‘up on the whiteboard’ motivation for his team, so I suspect he’ll be tapping in to that tonight.

I hope it works.

Right, that’ll be it from me today. I’m off to do some wine tasting. Catch you all tomorrow.