Yesterday’s City defeat has cast today’s game in a slightly different light I think. I still believe that if Arsenal lose, we’re probably out of the title race, but a draw puts us one point closer to them and although Liverpool will be nine points clear of us, that isn’t unsurmountable. Liverpool won against Villa yesterday, but that was another home game and they are doing the inverse of what we’ve had to kick this season off; apart from us away (in which injuries and players not being fully fit) where they caught us at a good time (let’s not forget the makeshift back four that we ended the game with – which was when they scored their equaliser), they have played mostly home games against bigger teams. Villa away, City home and away, Chelsea away, Brighton away, Brentford away – all tough games they will have to play.

Liverpool remind me of us two season’s ago and I think their start will absolutely see them go all the way to challenging for the league, but I think like us two season’s ago, they will have their blip. So getting closer to them now is important and that’s why I think the difference between a loss and a draw is massive today.

But the opponent is one that is returning to what they have been in the recent past; Chelsea are a good team and we will have a tough game today. The stats tell us that they have created 18.1 xG and from that have 20 goals, which is the fifth best in the league. Their attack is their main strength and whatever Maresca said about Palmer in his press conference, he’s playing today, so they will line up with a front four that will include the impressive (and unusually fit at the moment) Neto, Madueke, Jackson up top with Palmer behind. They will look to overload and dominate possession and with their inverting full backs they’ll also be looking to cause us problems in our central defensive third of the pitch I think. That’s why Declan Rice’s fitness is absolutely key. If he’s out (there has been talk of a broken toe) then it is probably Partey, Havertz and Merino in the midfield to start today, which will be Mikel’s attempt to congest that period of the pitch to try to stop Chelsea’s volume of numbers overrunning us. If he’s fit, this could be a big game for Rice and I just hope he’s ok because I feel like his inclusion or absence could be a difference maker for us.

Then, at the other end of the pitch, we have to do our jobs. That hasn’t happened of late and the lack of cutting edge against Bournemouth (before we went a man down), Newcastle and Inter is a worry. So we need to see Martinelli, Havertz, Saka all step up. I’d like to see a start for Odegaard but I don’t think Arteta will do that; he’s had a week of training under his belt, sure, but given he played just a few minutes in midweek, I doubt he’ll be ready to do an hour today. I suspect he’ll be named in the squad and we’ll see him in the second half. So, how do I think Arteta will line up today?

Raya

White – Saliba – Gabriel – Timber

Partey

Havertz – Merino

Saka – Trossard – Martinelli

I am basing this on the assumption that Rice isn’t fit. I know there was some noises pre Inter that said he should be fine for the weekend, I think Arsenal and Arteta will be cautious and not play him – think Saka and Bournemouth – so I suspect he goes with that familiar line up and Havertz and Trossard will be asked to rotate. And it’s because of this line up that I’m not overly confident about today. I think the attack is in a funk, I personally think Trossard needs to be warming the bench given his form, but I think that Arteta keeps having options taken away from him and that’s why he keeps getting the nod. This week it could be Rice that is the reason why Trossard gets a stay of execution in terms of being dropped. After the international break I suspect the team will look very different and Trossard will have to do something absolutely amazing today to keep his place, because Odegaard will be back and so too will Rice I think.

But for today I think Mikel will say once again “I know this hasn’t worked of late, but I still believe in it” and his stubbornness worries me. Personally I’d have Havertz up top, I’d say “screw it, Nwaneri, you’re getting the first half to impress”, then I’d see how the young lad gets on, knowing that we could potentially give Martin a 30 minute run out in the second half. That move would be bold, it would be different, it probably wouldn’t be something Maresca would expect, but it would also give us a creative spark that we’ve been lacking of late.

Chelsea will also look to have their wide players coming in from the sides, so we need duels to be won for White and Timber. Madueke has always impressed me and we all know what a talent Neto is, so both players will have their hands full. But if Chelsea do invert their full backs more today, then a transition game could be beneficial for us. Imagine they commit players forward and leave lots of green grass and space for Martinelli and Saka? Yes please indeed! But I suspect Maresca will adapt his tactics and play a little more like they did with City. They lost that game but played well and I think that was a blueprint for future performances. It was Maresca’s first proper game and so the team is still adapting, but by now they have played more than a dozen together in all competitions. So they will look to commit many bodies forward and pin us in our defensive third with their press. If we can spring out of that press, there will be space for our attackers to exploit.

It feels like the first goal is important here. If we score it, we could be springing more and more traps as the game progresses. If Chelsea score it, you worry about what it might do for our mentality. Chelsea can’t do defensively what Newcastle did last weekend, but they can do more in attack, so I’d expect more chances, but also more threat and if we aren’t on it then it could be an uncomfortable afternoon.

I’ll be on the pod post-game so if you fancy joining us on what might end up being a bit of a catharsis one. Hopefully not though. It’d be nice to do a ‘buzzing’ podcast after the last few weeks we’ve had. You can join us here from around 6.30pm.