I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I bloody hate this fixture.

Yesterday I spoke about the positives from Mikel Arteta’s press conference , but today all of that hope and positivity is washed away, replaced by nerves and more nerves. This fixture has – again, as I mentioned yesterday – been kind to us in the last two season’s, but over a 10 year period it has not, with us winning just the two in the league and losing six, with the rest being draws. For many years that’s what the NLD brings up – home team victories – and the Scum will be hoping that today does the same for them.

They are right to be a little more bullish; we’re going to be missing at least two – possibly three if Merino establishes himself as a first choice – midfielders and ‘Big Ange’ was able to confirm that basically they have a full fit squad bar Yves Bissouma. But in his place they will have Bentancur and he’s a decent enough replacement who will hold in that six role and look to allow Maddison and Sarr to express themselves. And it’s that midfield battle that will probably be key today, because if we had our first choice out there I’d really fancy our chances, but in the absence of Rice and Odegaard, we are significantly weakened and Tottenham will look to exploit that. They are a possession-based team who for the first three games of the season have had all of the ball and they’ll want that again today too. Last season they had most of the ball as well, but I think a lot of that was to do with game state, because we were three up at halftime and were always going to ‘have what we hold’ in that situation. But if you look at how the Scum have started this season, it has been through controlling the ball and looking to dominate the chances. Against Newcastle they were the better team and got smash-and-grabbed, it was a similar story away to Leicester, but at home to Everton they had an easy afternoon, smashing them 4-0 and the game basically looked done by halftime when they were two up. That day they played Son through the middle but he’ll play in his more favoured wide left position today I think, which means Ben White has some work to do. Solanke will – I am sure – be deployed centrally and he’ll occupy Saliba and Gabriel with his physicality, but they will look to set Son in behind today and so my hope is that Ben White has his footrace boots laced up, because I think he might get a few.

Last season Tottenham were a side that gave up a ton of chances and created a ton of chances too, it’s only been three games so it’s hard to judge but they have started off by being the third highest shot takers in the league behind Liverpool and, weirdly, Nottingham Forest. They’ve also faced the third lowest number of shots behind Liverpool and City, so whilst the initial data suggests they’ve improved on the volume of shots they’re conceding, you have to take in to account opponent and game state, as well as the quality of shots too, for which Tottenham’s opponents have an xG of 3.8 – the eighth best in the league. That tells me that they are still giving up chances and last season it was set pieces that did them over – also in this game at the Toilet Bowl.

So perhaps that is something Arsenal will look to exploit again? Maybe. We haven’t really kicked off our goalscoring this season from set pieces, which was such a big factor for us in the league, so perhaps today could be the day? I’ll take anything to be honest with you, because I’m not 100% confident in today’s game. Our absences are big losses, plus we don’t really seemed to have ‘clicked’ yet this season. Our victories have been functional, not spectacular, then we had the disgrace that was the Brighton refereeing, so it’s been difficult to see whether we are fully purring yet – it doesn’t feel like it to me. But despite our injuries, when I map out a possible starting XI, we still have plenty of quality to call on. So here’s what I think Arteta might do from the start:

Raya

White   –   Saliba   –   Gabriel   –   Timber

Partey

Jorginho   –   Havertz

Saka   –   Jesus   –   Martinelli

I’ve gone with Jorginho because that’s what I think he might do, rather than my preference, but also because I remember that Jorginho played against Liverpool and City at home and I remember him pressing a little higher in the team. So I wonder if Arteta will do that again. Jorginho is not a man who works well when running back towards his own goal, but if the Scum are to have plenty of possession, then perhaps he won’t be asked to? Perhaps there will be times when it is all out in front of him? Or perhaps he will be a higher presser in the team to occupy space and we will be a little more compact in that midfield and defence, which means Jorginho and his passing range will be used as a ball retention tool. I mentioned it yesterday that I don’t think we’ll see Nwaneri from the start and despite me calling for Zinchenko earlier in the week, I don’t think Arteta will do that either, so that’s why I just think it will be Jorginho who is asked to do a job. The interesting thing about that, however, is that we have Atalanta in midweek and City next weekend and Arteta surely won’t use Jorginho and Partey for all three games, right? Maybe he will, but it feels like given our injuries right now, that’d be a big gamble.

I’ve seen some suggest that Calafiori should come in at left back and were he not injured for Italy I’d be ok with that and maybe even think it myself, but I just suspect that because of that injury Arteta will hold off bringing him in just yet, so Timber gets the nod.

And so here we go. Strap yourselves in Gooners, because unlike last season when we were fully fit and on form, it’s going to be quite a difficult afternoon I think. I just hope we can come out of that horrible part of the world with some sort of point(s).

We’re going live almost straight after the whistle on the Same Old Arsenal podcast here if you fancy joining us. Other than that, I’ll catch you all tomorrow.