I was torn in between two minds yesterday, as I didn’t get time to write some random musings until around 8.30am, but then gave up because whatever I thought/said would be superseded by the announcement yesterday of the fixtures that have come out. Cue all of us pouring over each game, when the ‘big ticket’ matches are and how we were going to start and end the season.

I do get it when people say “breaking news, we’ll play everyone twice” in a sarcastic tone; ultimately that is true and everyone plays everyone so in theory it shouldn’t really matter when you play and who you play. But as we’ve just found out last season and the season before, the timings of games actually CAN make a difference in the context of a season.

Let’s take the re-arrange Spurs v City game. Had that not been re-arranged to when it was, we might have seen the Scum put up more of a fight as they went for the Champions League spots, but as it was I think they only half-heartedly went for it and as for their fans, of course they had no interest in winning that game at all (understandably – I might have been the same to be honest with you. I’m just thankful I haven’t had to find that out). Now, you could argue that “well, that fixture was re-arranged, so surely that undermines your point about them being announced?” and yes, to a point, I guess that is something for consideration. But my point here is that the timing of matches is important in the context of a season in which marginal gains could be the difference in a season. For example, when we lost to City two season’s ago, we were due to play them in September, but the football matches were stopped due to the death of Queen Elizabeth II on September 8th. At that point in the season we’d won our first five games and were top of the league. We had built momentum and as a result, I would have fancied us to get a win there. The match was called off, moved to February and we’d suffered defeats to City in the Cup, Everton in the league, then drawn at home to Brentford (robbed by refereeing, if you remember), before losing to City at home.

We had lost momentum and the timing of the fixture hit us.

So for me if I’m mapping out the ‘perfect’ way to play out a season with fixtures, I’m looking for:

  • A run of games to help you build momentum early on and pick up wins
  • The ‘difficult’ games (away to teams in the top four or five) spread out across the season
  • A series of winnable games right at the end as you chase what is hopefully a title dream.

On the first point, if you recall, in 2022 we did just that and it set the tone for the season. In 2007/8 we did the same and won eight of our first nine names, going to to ultimately collapse after the Eduardo injury, then in 2013/14 we lost our first game at home to Villa, but then had a kind run and then won eight of our first 10 games. Conversely in 2021/22 we infamously lost those first three games to Brentford, Chelsea and City and were bottom of the league. It basically took the whole season of fighting to get us back in to the top four contention and we narrowly missed out at the end. But it always felt like we were playing catch up.

Momentum matters in football.

That’s why it’s a bloody frustrating and kind of daunting opener for us. Villa, the Scum and City as our first three away games is the Champions, fourth and fifth place by the time we’ve even got up and running in the season. We’ve also got a difficult end of October/November too, as we play Liverpool at home, Newcastle away and Chelsea away. Then there’s the end of the season that will see us play Liverpool on 10th May and if we’re in with a shout of any kind of title aspirations that could be a huge game. So in short, based on the bullets above, we’ve probably got the exact opposite of what I personally would have fancied. Which is a bit of a pain in the arse, to be honest with you. Then you look at City’s games and they’re up against Chelsea away to start – which could be tricky as they’re an unknown quantity under their new manager Maresca, but after that it’s Ipswich at home, West Ham away, Brentford at home, us at home and Newcastle away. You’d hope we’ll give them a heck of a game, but the others? As for their end of the season…well…let’s just say I’m looking at it and thinking it might end up being five in a row for them if we’re not a few points clear of them by the beginning of April. Their fixtures are United away, Palace at home, Everton away, Villa at home, Wolves at home, Southampton away, Bournemouth at home and Fulham away. That’s got eight wins out of eight written all over it.

But that’s what you have to do to overcome this Guardiola City side. We have to basically get to November within a point of the leaders and if we do that then I think we’ll certainly have to fancy our chances. Slip up in the game at Villa Park, NLD and at the Emptihad and the chances of lifting that Premier League trophy might already be gone.

I haven’t even mentioned the Champions League games, which are wedged in between some of those big fixtures.

Arteta will relish the challenge though, I think, because he’ll have the sort of belief in his team that will have us all excited for the new season.

It’s going to be tough, we’re going to have to be even better than we were last season, but bring. It. On, I say.

Catch you lovely humans tomorrow.