With still little going on of any substance from an Arsenal perspective, I thought I’d have a little look in to the current run in we’ve got until the end of the season and make some assumptions on what I think might happen. Of course none of it will actually happen, because I’m one of the worst predictors of sports outcmes on the planet, but as I’m here and there’s nothing else going on for at least the next 11 days, might as well give it a go.

Shakespearian aside moment: Erling Haaland supposedly limping off in training is NOT news that will impact us. He will be back and fine come our game, of that we can all be sure.

So, how do I think it’s going to go for us between now and the end of the season, eh?

Well, first and foremost, some caveats, because I know that the number of games we could play this season could fluctuate before the end of this season. If we progress beyond Bayern in the Champions League then of course that’s at least another two that need to be added in, which will also happen in between Premier League matches and could therefore impact of those games as well, what with fatigue kicking in, etc. So for the purposes of this particular think-piece today, I’ve only made an assumption that we’re playing 12 games between now and the end of the season. It’s not because I don’t want us to get through against Bayern, it’s not that I don’t think it will happen, but merely to avoid this being an even longer ramble than usual full of the ‘if that then this‘ kind of explanations that turns this piece in War and Peace. There’s also the fact that we could lose key players to injury, players losing form through fatigue, etc. All of which I know, but I’m discounting that for reason’s mentioned in the last sentences.

So, with caveats out of the way, what do I reckon will happen with The Arsenal this season? Here’s our current remaining fixtures as it stands:

  • Man City – away
  • Luton – home
  • Brighton – away
  • Bayern – home
  • Aston Villa – home
  • Bayern – away
  • Wolves – away
  • Tottenham – away
  • Bournemouth – home
  • Man United – away
  • Everton – home
  • Chelsea – home (date yet to be set)

Let’s start with City then, given that it’s just 11 days away, over Easter. I’d love there to be some kind of turning of the historical form, I’d love there to be some kind of Cazorla/Coquelin-inspired victory that means we come away from Manchester with all three points, but I just can’t see it. Yes, we’re in amazing form and yes, the players will go in to this game full of confidence. We’ve had some rest time having not played last weekend and Arteta and his team will have been able to study, study and study some more on how Man City have been setting up this season and in big games. But that hoodoo we have in Manchester feels like it isn’t going away just yet and I think they’ll probably beat us. We’re all delighted with our winning streak, but Man City haven’t lost a game since 6th December and despite some draws against Liverpool and Chelsea, this is the exact time in the season in which they move in to fourth or fifth gear and so sadly I think we’re not coming away from the Etihad with anything.

But that’s ok, because we will still be just two points off City and three off Liverpool, so that could easily swing within a game week. So that’s why the next game against Luton at home has to be a win and I think it will. Arteta will rotate I’m sure because it’s a midweeker, but we should have enough to overcome the hatters, so I’m thinking that’s three points there. But the weekend will be the first time that he will have to think about how he rotates and comes away with three points at a very tough place to play, Brighton. That’s because we’ll have Bayern in the midweek game and so I’m sure he’ll have to work out a balance to be struck in that game on the south coast. Brighton have consistently cause us problems and they will do the same again, but given that they play Brentford in midweek and so won’t have the benefit of playing us having had a week off, I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest we could get the win. It’ll be hard, but I’m backing our lads in the spirit of trying to be positive.

The Bayern tie is at home next and I won’t speak too much about that due to the caveats mentioned above, but I hope we can win there and take a decent lead to Germany. Then, if we have, let’s carry that winning mentality to a home game against a good Villa side that weekend. We owe them one having been somewhat shafted at Villa Park so I am hoping for another three points and although there will be some possible repercussions re: fatigue from the Bayern game in midweek, Villa play on the Thursday at home to Lille, so they will have played their own game in midweek and therefore won’t have the advantage of having had rest where we have not.

We then travel to Bayern away, before Wolves away and this will be a real tough one I reckon. Wolves are an organised side under Gary O’Neill, they will give us a run around and they will have had a week to prepare. I think this will be tight, there might be one goal in it, but I think we can get the win – just.

Now we’re getting to real squeaky bum time, because we play the Scum at the Toilet Bowl and they will be bang up for it. I bet they’ll also have stuck the Chelsea game in for that midweek too by then, so they’ll have had a week’s rest where we did not. I think we’ll beat Chelsea to collect three points at home, despite the fact that Chelsea have picked up draws against us and City, but I do fear that game on 27th against the Scum. I don’t think we get out of there with three points and I’m trying to say positive by saying we’ll pick up a draw, but I do wonder if they’ll be bang up for spoiling our party, or even putting a nail in an title coffin, because by then we’re just a few games from the end of the season and if Liverpool and City have won all of their games as I’m expecting, then I think it might make it a little too much for us to win. So that’s a draw at best for me I think.

And so we come to those final three games. I think we bounceback against any defeat or draw against Bournemouth as my gut feel is that Bournemouth are safe and have little to play for by then. They’re on 35 points at the moment and I suspect they’ll get to 40 by the time we play them, so I think we navigate that game fine, before we once again have to return to Old Trafford to face United. And despite how much of a car crash they are under Ten Haag, I think we slip up here. I don’t know what it is about United, but regardless of whether they are crap or good, they always seem to beat us. Just look at last season and I can see a repeat of that too; we dominate, we deserve to win, they get a dodgy penalty and beat us.

That would leave us once again finishing the season with Everton who I think we’ll beat. They might be in a relegation dogfight still, they might have something to play for where we do not, but I think we still win.

So where does that leave us then? I think it’ll have us finishing on an additional 22 points from these games, which would be a grand total of 86. It would have us two points better off than last season, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to take the title. City won it last season on 89 and I feel like that will be what will win it this season. Whether we’ll be in second or third I don’t know, but regardless of that if we finish on 86 having finished on 84 last season, we are getting closer to that point in which we are title winners and I will still see this as a positive season.

But what do you think? Where do you think we’ll land?

Let me know in the comments.