Well, here we are, ladies and gents. Time to strap ourselves in because this is the big one and this is a test that this Arsenal team simply must pass if it wants to be in contention for the top honours going in to the end of the season. The period over Christmas in which we lost our form and dropped points we really shouldn’t have has meant that instead of going in to this game pretty much neck-a-neck with Liverpool, they stand on the brink of pulling away from us in the league. You know the stakes by now: Win and we’re two points off them and right in the mixer. Draw and it’s ‘as you were’ but it’s one game less to be able to play catch up and, crucially, it’ll be a head-to-head that we can’t gain ground on. Defeat…well…I have to admit…it’s probably over for the Premier League title hopes.

Arteta didn’t admit that in his Friday press conference, but I suspect he knows it’ll be all over if we lose, because eight points is a massive gap. Think about it; Liverpool have lost one game all season, they’ve been winning game after game and if we lose then we’ll also be three points off Man City (who will beat Brentford tomorrow) who will win their game in hand and that would put us six points off City and eight off Liverpool. Chasing one team is one thing, but expecting two teams in such a rich vein of form to drop that many points? Impossible in my opinion.

Which is why today is absolutely a ‘must win’ for me. Even a draw probably doesn’t do enough. So Arsenal need to be at it from the start and they need to make the kind of start we made last season. I also think that we need to score the first goal. I often say that and it feels like a kind of redundant statement to make, but in this instance, against this Liverpool team it feels even more imperative. If they score first then the game state means we have to come at them. It means the spaces will open up and it will become a transition game of football, which Liverpool and their attack thrives at, so that first goal feels like it could set the tone today. Arteta and this rendition of Arsenal prefers control; we’re a possession-based, ball-dominant, control-focused team. They want to be able to draw teams on to them and then get in behind the opposition press to stress them and I think Arteta will hope that Liverpool deploy the same approach they have done in the last two games. If they do then they will give us chances and then it becomes how we take our chances. We should have been two or three up in that first half of the FA Cup game and Liverpool rode their luck. The second half was a little more even but we still created chances and so therefore today becomes about that moment that when we get in the right position, we don’t take too many touches and we don’t mis some chances that we really should be scoring.

The scary rumours this morning are that Gabriel Jesus could be a doubt for today. There were some noises emerging last night that he’s picked up a knock, despite training in midweek and being pictured training too. I hope that this is just a bit of game playing but after we found out that Partey is going to be out again for another few weeks, the last thing we need is another one of our main stars being out for another big game. It feels like we haven’t played a big game with one of our best stars playing for about four years. We know we’re going to miss Partey but to miss Gabriel Jesus as well would be a massive blow for us. Not least because the other options are hardly even close, are they? Eddie as a direct replacement? Not for me. Kai up top? Yes he would be a good target man and link player, but you’d not back him to put the ball away if it falls to him on the penalty spot, would you?

So Gabriel Jesus being out would feel like we’ve got an even bigger hill to climb today. Liverpool will come to us with returning players and rested players. Don’t believe Klopp’s nonsense about Darwin Nunez, because he’s playing today and so will Jota, so he can get his customary goal/assist against us as he always does. Honestly, we finally get rid of Firmino, Jamie Vardy and Harry Kane are out of the league, then we realise there’s this guy always showing up to score against us. It’s bloody annoying. But he’ll play wide right and that means Zinchenko and Gabriel need to be able to keep close watch on him. But they’ll also need to watch Nunez, because he’ll look to pull apart our defence and if Gabriel and Zinchenko spend too much time on Jota, then Nunez will profit by taking up the space. Then on the other side the pace of Luis Diaz is going to cause Ben White a problem.

But in our attack we also need White on that overlap because that will help Saka out to no end. Earlier in the season when it looked like White was carrying a knock he wasn’t doing those overlaps, but it looks like he’s managed to get over that knock and if that means we see more of that overlap to stress the likes of Robertson at left back, then maybe Saka can have a good game for us today.

On the other side of the flank the question is whether Martinelli should start up against Trent, or whether we should look at Trossard instead, because whilst Martinelli has a good record against Liverpool (scored four and assisted twice in nine games), Trossard also has a good record: he’s scored five and assisted once in 10 games. Of course all of those goal contributions were for Brighton and he’s only played 32 minutes in two games against Liverpool in the league, but would Arteta consider the Belgian over the Brazilian today?

I’m not sure he will, so I think we’ll see:

Raya

White   –   Saliba   –   Gabriel   –   Zinchenko

Rice

Odegaard   –   Havertz

Saka   –   Jesus   –   Martinelli

Obviously if Jesus is out then there’s a change that is needed and if he is out, I’d wonder about playing Trossard in that false nine role. Last season when he got a couple of go’s in that position last season just after he signed and I thought he was good – maybe even better than in the wide positions – so if Jesus is out I think I’d rather see that than Eddie or Kai up top. Let’s surprise Liverpool a bit and see what happens.

We’ll be doing a full de-brief post game tonight after 8pm so if you fancy joining us to celebrate / wallow then catch us here on the Same Old Arsenal podcast.