This feels a little weird this morning because I’m writing a pre match preview of the game later on today between Leeds and The Arsenal, without really being 100% confident as to whether it will actually be going ahead, what with all of the COVID-19 problems causing matches left, right and centre to be cancelled this weekend. As of now and as of yesterday when Mikel Arteta spoke to the press, the game was due to go ahead, but who knows what will happen between now and 5.30pm.

My hope is that it does go ahead and that is for purely selfish reasons. The first is that it is better to try to spread out your matches across the recognised schedule, because already next year is looking like it’s going to be a very condensed one for many teams. Tottenham have three matches to finish off including a UEFA Conference League game against Rennes I believe and given that our January is looking hectic with no games called off so far, nor any European football, I don’t really know how they are going to sort out the problems the Scum have. But they are going to have to and that could lead to fatigue and other issues later inthe season. Again, selfishly, of course I’d love Tottenham and other rivals to have that same fatigue which could give us a potential advantage. Or at least you’d hope.

The second selfish reason is that Leeds have a big injury list at the moment and that – on paper at least – gives us a slight advantage. If the news is true that is being reported, Leeds have Junior Firpo, Rodrigo, Bamford, Struijk, James, Cooper and Kalvin Phillips all out injured. They are all first team players and that is a heck of an unlucky list of absentees at a very fixture-intense part of the season. I certainly feel for Leeds, but if the game goes ahead – like I say – on paper it should give us an advantage. Particularly with Phillips out because he is the guy that so much of Leeds’ play runs through. He was out for the game at The Emirates last season and I felt like you could tell; they wanted to build from the back and Phillips was the guy who could do that and without him they looked to have fewer ideas when we beat them 4-2. Of course they fought back with a couple of goals towards the end and that should be a lesson for us that they are capable of turning it on, but assuming this match plays tonight, we should be looking to try to capitalise on where Leeds are at.

Of course this is Arsenal away from home, which is the big caveat, because we can make any rubbish team look good. Not that I’m saying Leeds are rubbish, but Everton certainly are and we managed to galvanise them after they got tonked by Liverpool in their previous game. For Leeds it was Man City who gave them a battering in Manchester and my fear for today is a Leeds side desperate to put on a show for their fans.

Which is why we need to channel everything that was good about the Southampton and West Ham performances and plough it in to this game this evening. I would probably name an unchanged side if I were Arteta; having reflected a little more I think Lacazette did a better job than I gave him credit for on Wednesday and if he is surrounded by willing runners in Martinelli and Saka, then we have our guys who will make those runs with which he can be a link man for.

Leeds will be a different proposition to West Ham though. West Ham are a more direct side, have fewer touches but go back to wide quickly and look to use their physical presence to dominate, often scoring from aerial actions, etc. Leeds are set up differently under Bielsa and whilst they haven’t been in the best of form, they’ve only lost two of their eight games at home this season. They’ve shipped the third most goals as a team with 34, but only 11 of those have come at home. They have one of the highest number of passes attempted in the league and also the highest average distance of defensive actions from their own goal, which says to me they play a higher line and there could therefore be more space to run in behind. Which is why I’d be having Martinelli and Saka as nailed-on starters.

Leeds also top the charts on average shots from distance and they have a pretty low conversion rate, which says to me we will see them going for a few more long-rangers today. Our back line need to be wary of that and so engaging a little higher up the pitch from our defence is probably the best idea, especially as Leeds have pressed their opponent more than any other opponent in the league so far this season, which builds a picture of the opponent we’re going to face today:

  • High press
  • Look to press their back line up the pitch more
  • Taking shots from distance
  • Short passing.

So our blueprint feels like we need to mix it up a little today. For me that means less of the deep build up from the back because Leeds will look to put us under pressure. So we need to go around or over their press and we could see some joy. In my head that feels like Ramsdale looking for the likes of Odegaard or Lacazette more with more direct passing rather than to the feet of Gabriel or White. If we turnover the ball and then get it forward more directly, we could find ourselves in behind their press and that’s where we’ll get some joy.

Of course this is all theory and practice is very different, especially with this Arsenal team away from home. We saw how our approach caqn just be completely ignored by the players with passive play in that Everton game and therefore we need to avoid that kind of mentality at all costs. My hope is that with the last two wins and a bit more confidence in the team we can avoid that, but away from home Arsenal and at home Arsenal appear to be two different beasts right now. Let’s hope we can put that theory to bed today with three points.

Catch you all tomorrow.